100 Million People Out of Poverty in 10 Years. Can We Do It?
The first of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals to transform the world is No Poverty. Could the president have been echoing this when he made that remark on the 12th of June? Nigeria’s success with the SDGs lies entirely with him. The global goals came into effect only a few months into the life of his administration. By the end of his second term in 2023, he would have spent eight out of the 15 years of the lifetime of the SDGs. Indeed, between now and 2030 there are 11 years to beat the deadline. With a target of 100 million people and a population that would have exceeded 210 million, we would be leaving many people behind. A core principle of the UNSGDs is to leave no one behind.
Statistics show that Nigeria has the highest number of people living in extreme poverty at 86.9 million followed by the former leaders India with 71.5 million. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of extremely poor Nigerians rose from 17.7 million in 1980 to 34.7 million in 1985. By 1992, the number had risen to 39 million and to 67 million in 1996. The corresponding populations of these years were 65 million, 75 million, 95 million and 102.3 million. Obviously, Nigeria’s increasing rate of poverty is directly proportional to its growing population. In 2012, 112 million out of 167 million were extremely poor. With a projection of 400 million by 2050, if we do not buck this trend, more than 320 million Nigerians will be extremely poor in 2050.
We must remind ourselves that we did not fare well with the preceding Millennium Development Goals, and it is necessary to note that in President Buhari’s June 12 speech, his remark on getting 100 million people out of poverty was not an imperative; it was a solemn wish perhaps meant to galvanize national consciousness and eventual action (somewhere down the road). Notwithstanding the non-committal statement, it is a goal that must be aspired to. It is an audacious vision which feasibility is not unprecedented.
China’s poverty rate fell from 88 percent in 1981 to 0.7 percent (about 800 million people) in 2015, a period of 34 years. China’s progress accounted for more than three-quarters of global poverty reduction and a big factor in why the world reached the UN millennium development goal of dividing extreme poverty by two. It did not happen by chance. The task requires ingenuity, sincerity, and leadership, chiefly from the political class with a great deal of economic improvisation, courage, consistency, and collectivity. There are significant factors that would contribute to the success or failure of any ambition in Nigeria.
The democracy debacle: Again, we must take note of China, here. The country is not the bastion of democratic ideals. A one-party communist state without elections nor statutory freedoms taken for granted in democratic enclaves. Yet, China’s autocracy is arguably its biggest tool in crawling out of the underdevelopment cauldron. After emerging from the twin disasters of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, the country took its fate in its own hands and advanced without flinching. Deng Xiaoping pulled all levers of state for the sake of state-sponsored capitalism. There were no elections to cause divisions across the country or opposing ideologies competing for popularity. Nigeria still has imperfect elections, inchoate ideologies, weak institutions, defective leadership, religious intolerance, ethnic jingoism. Progress can only be made only after we have properly situated our democracy with our peculiar proclivities.
Visionary leadership: Lee Kuan Yew, Deng Xiaoping, Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, and David Ben-Gurion. These men have one thing in common. Vision. While Al Maktoum, Al Thani, and Xiaoping had supreme powers, Yew (who transformed Singapore from third world to first world in one generation), and Ben-Gurion (who moved Zionism from agitation to reality) were talented politicians who were masters of consensus building. Democracy is not that much of an albatross for young nations after all when the successes of Singapore and Israel are considered.
Nigeria has its own pantheon of Pathfinders: Herbert Macaulay, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Obafemi Awolowo, and Ahmadu Bello. It is, however, pertinent to ask why with such a star-studded cast we have had to experience Operation wetie, two military coups, and a civil war, all within six years of independence? Was it inexperience, or was it something about the first men themselves? It is hard to shake off the feeling that we are still reeling from the shaky start of the republic. Unfortunately, it is almost blasphemous to criticise Nigeria’s founding fathers.
Our leaders had also given us Vision 2000, Vision 2010 and Vision 20:2020. We have also had National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy, NEEDS (with four key policies of wealth creation, employment generation, poverty eradication, and value reorientation), Seven-point and Transformation agendas, and now the ERGP (Economic Recovery and Growth Plan). Through it all, poverty has increased, inflation and foreign exchange rates keep fluctuating at unsustainable levels, all other indices of development never signify any progress. The visions are apparitions, the plans are not well-thought out or not well-executed. The politics and intrigues of self-sustenance and self-perpetuation are more rewarding to Nigerian politicians than the welfare of the people and the sustenance, longevity, and development of the shared space called Nigeria.
Resource curse: Japan is a country of about 6, 852 islands and a population of 126 million people. Until 2010 it was the second largest economy in the world. Now at number three, it has no known natural resource, yet it leads the world in the production of automobiles, technical and other industrial equipment. It is possibly the most technologically advanced country in the world. Literacy rate is 99%. Unemployment is around 4%. Conversely, Nigeria has everything, yet it ranks at the bottom of most development indices. Unemployment, literacy, and poverty rates are at desperate levels. Despite the abundant arboreal blessings, and matching immense human resource, our case is a sorry one.
Corruption: The elephant in the room. Cost of corruption to Africa is about $60 billion yearly. With Nigeria being the undisputed hotbed of corruption on the continent, it is easy to extrapolate how much of such illicit outflows is Nigeria’s. Without mincing words, corruption is theft, nepotism, and abuse of office. In Nigeria, it is accompanied by an equally big problem — impunity. Development is about the greatest good for the greatest number of people, but we cannot move even one million people up the prosperity ladder if the collective patrimony will continue to be enjoyed by an undeserving few. No amount of trickle-down economic machinations will solve the bottleneck of corruption. We have anti-corruption institutions and the courts yet there is no end to the lavishness of high-ranking civil servants and elected officials. No one asks questions when people are obviously living above their means. If the Local Government chair can divert enough money to herself and distribute pittance to her minions then there’s no need for good roads or standard classroom blocks; no one needs good primary health centres. How can any group of people strive for more if they cannot survive the limitations of basic existence visited upon them by a mean class of leaders? Every administration since 1999 has promised to fight corruption but the results have been unimpressive. Corruption and impunity are the biggest drawbacks to progress. For any corruption fight to succeed police reforms are necessary. We also need improvements in the judiciary — more judges, more courtrooms, more human-friendly courtrooms at all levels, less paperwork and more automation. All these can help eliminate the backlogs and speed up the resolution of new cases. The wheels of our justice system are cranky, the scales are unbalanced.
Weak institutions: This is a fall out of deeply ingrained corruption. Weak institutions are cited regularly as part of the Nigerian problem but institutions do not build themselves. Strong and established institutions are not well-manicured, grandiose buildings. They are well-heeled traditions of excellence and best practices adhered to by the stewards of an organisation. An organisation remains a strong institution irrespective of who holds forth. The tenets of honesty, discipline and whatever else the organisation stands for is proudly borne by its people. Thus you won’t have a timid NAFDAC after Professor Dora Akunyili, or a flat-footed FIRS after Ifueko Omoigui-Okauru or Dr. Babatunde Fowler. The EFCC and ICPC will not have to read Buhari’s body language to prosecute suspected thieving public officials. Building institutions requires a succession of exemplary leaders to imbue their organisations with character. That is how we can begin to formulate brilliant policies based on research and empirical evidence and not feel good factors. Without strong institutions like the Nigerian Ports Authority, the courts, incorruptible Inland Revenue services, a virile Revenue Mobilisation Allocation, and Fiscal Commission and so on we cannot address the ease of doing business headache. Without efficient institutions there won’t be good policies and businesses will groan under the weight of such poor decisions, businesses will malfunction and fail and jobs will be lost thereby perpetuating the poverty cycle.
Critical infrastructure: Let there be light! It is a testament to the Nigerian grit that we have managed to remain either the first or the second biggest economy in Africa. All businesses and homes are powered by petrol and diesel generators. Fuel costs gulp significant home finances and business overhead costs. It is easy to imagine the lurking potential if we can solve our energy crises. Small businesses will have more funds for expansion; micro businesses like barber shops, beauty shops, pastry shops, and printing shops will see instant prosperity. There will also be positives for the environment: our nights will be quieter, the atmosphere will be cleaner and less toxic.
Apart from fixing roads, rails, and housing, we need to solve soft infrastructure especially education where we can incubate talent that will fill the boardrooms and the factories that we want to see.
Lifting 100 million people out of poverty is not impossible. The quest to do it in 10 years is however over-ambitious given our record of poor execution. The National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP) of 2001 has drifted into oblivion. In a 2008 analysis, the program was said to have trained 130,000 youths and engaged 216,000 people. After 7 years, that was quite a dismal showing. We are never diligent and focused on public policy programs. The work that is required to succeed is a holistic one. It would require consensus, a team of young, vibrant visionaries, skilful, focused and diligent execution of short, medium and long term plans of incremental and measurable progress and most importantly the WILL to do it.
